Thanks for the updates. Too bad about Larry. I have always admired him. I know the feeling of having to hang it up, and it's not much fun. I wish him much success at his next endeavor.

At last count (according to a AAA crew chief last week) 11 AAA umpires were released. Some, no doubt, possess names that are familiar to this board's posters.

Word came out early that this was to be a "house cleaning" year. Some of the names are surprising and some of the reasons were not directly related to on-field performance.

With AA releases, A releases and next year's midseason self-releases, this coming season could easily become a "40 rookie year." There is some thought that PBUC may ask for 50 to look at instead of the 40 that has become more common.

I suspect it will be at least 40. Remember that there are something like 8 new slots for Long / Advanced A 'roamers' for getting folks started on the three umpire system.

I don't mean to pat myself on the back, but I saw this coming back in 1999. Back in 1999 when MLB umpires used their doomed resignation strategy, and 22 AAA umpires were promoted to the full-time MLB staff...a lot of young lower-level pro umpires were thrilled. They were thrilled because there was a lot of upward movement at that time.

However, I remember thinking at that time that this was not going to be good 5-10 years down the road for a lot of the guys who were at the same level as me. Simply put, having 22 new umpires meant that even less openings would occur on the MLB staff during the next decade.

My thoughts at that time have come to fruition. In fact it is worse. With a settlement that MLB reached with some of the resigned umpires, MLB had 70 full-time umpires this year filling 68 slots. (Which everyone here knows).

The writing was on the wall. There are a lot of very, very, very good umpires who could have had fine MLB careers that got let go. It is a numbers game. With only Bruce Froemming having retired so far this off-season, there are still 69 umpires filling 68 spots on MLB's roster.

Frankly, it is also no secret which umpire most AAA umpires consider to be the one most likely to be promoted to the full-time MLB staff when the next vacancy occurs. (As an aside: It is NOT a person regularly talked about on this board...in fact, I don't know if I've ever seen his name discussed on a thread here).

The writing on the wall. It is a sad, but a well known, risk one takes when entering this profession.

(ALSO please don't ask me to post which 11 got let go: I was just told a number...I did not ask for names from my contact...it was a touchy subject and I did not want to pry.)

The word from PBUC is that this is not coming this year, though that was a few weeks ago and could have changed, I suppose. Back then it was said this was more likley to happen next year. It might even become an item for negotiations, which begin after this season, I believe.

I don't think that went unnoticed by many. The issue wasn't so much as just having 22 new MLB umpires, it was more that they were all around the same age....young.

The effect of that will last more than one decade.

In the year 2018
 

After the 1999 "situation," a friend of mine calculated that the year to go to umpire school was 2018. His calculation was based on ages of the MLB's at the time. I did not review his math or assumptions, but found his theory interesting enough to remember it.

Walt

That is what I meant when I said "new"...although, admittedly, "young" is a far more appropriate word.