Jim Evans exclusive interview - part two

[insatty]

A newly published JEA would be great. I love my Jaksa/Roder manual for substance, but I quibble with its aesthetics. It's printed on one side of the page, so it's too thick to carry. The black ink is cheap, and smears when highlighted. So if you publish JEA, don't skimp on the aesthetics.

[His High Holiness]

Originally posted by GarthB

Actually I aced my marketing classes and I've spent over 20 years in the profession.

Just as there is more to the JEA then you apparently understand, there is more to pricing then your level of comprehension grasps.

Using your (ahem) logic, a Lexus should be priced at $5,000.

Let's look at the potential market. All amateur umpires? Hardly. You and your lack of appreciation of what may be offered is example enough that that isn't the case.

We need to whittle the anticipated market down to those amateur umpires who either know what the JEA offers or who can be easily educated to understand that. Again, you apparently do not fit either of these groups.

Now then, we can compare value with what exists in the market place and estimate demand. (Why don't we consider the cost of the material? Because in the real world, that is insignificant. People don't care what something costs to produce, they make decisions based on what they are willing to pay. It;s quite simple really: decisions come down to "which would you rather have...the $199 or the JEA?

The demand by the market most likely to purchase a JEA will be effected only minimally by cost, provided it is not completely out of line with value and comparable material.

Or to put it in terms you might understand; out of 1,000 potential customers who fit the profile, let's say 500 (a low figure) will pay $199, while 950 (a high figure) would pay $30. In case you can't do the math, even with 450 fewer copies sold at the $199 price the gross revenue is still $71,000 more than selling 950 copies at $30.

Stick to coaching.

Garth;

This is incomplete logic and incomplete research. My guess is that no matter what you charge, 100 people will buy it and illegally copy it it for 850. How may illegal copies of JEA do you think that are out there right now!?

Peter

[GarthB]

Originally posted by His High Holiness

Garth;

This is incomplete logic and incomplete research. My guess is that no matter what you charge, 100 people will buy it and illegally copy it it for 850. How may illegal copies of JEA do you think that are out there right now!?

Peter

Good God, Peter. Did you expect me to spend two weeks to a month preparing my response to an idiotic post that demonstrated no understanding of marketing what-so-ever? You know better than that.

My reply was a basic example of revenue generation by price. It could have been widgets. Surely you understood that.

I would dispute your figures as being unrealistic. The current crop of illegal copies would have little effect on the growing demand for any copy at all. If you can afford me, I'd be happy to generate a survey that could accurately, within 4 percentag points, peg the number of orders at a given cost point.

I have no idea how many illegal copies there are total. I know of one individual who passed around several illegal electronic copies, but outside of that I have only anecdotal information.

The demand for the JEA is large. Obviously price will effect that demand. My previous post was not a scientific argument for a price point, but rather a demonstration that those who believe lower costs ultimately result in more dollars from more sales know little about marketing.

I really thought you of all people would have grasped that.

I guess I had over-estimated the crowd at official.forum. Maybe there's rationale for some of those articles afterall.

[Rich Ives]

"Using your (ahem) logic, a Lexus should be priced at $5,000."

I don't think so. (For one thing, they cost more than that to make and no one still in business is that stupid.)

To increase sales you can increase the desire to own one (marketing) or lower the price, or both.

If there are sufficient alternatives, and/or the alternatives serve the purpose of most, then you must really hit the marketing hard to get enough people convinced to buy your product versus the alternative.

BUT, you must, in the long run, recover your costs and make a profit.

Costs for a book include, of course, a writer's royalty which includes a minimum guarantee. Per unit printing costs will vary by the quantity ordered (sales volume). Then you have advertising and distribution costs. You still have to determine how many you have to sell at various price/cost combinations to meet your objectives.

In the current environment, too high a cost for the book will lead to illegal copying, rather than sales, just as the music and movie business has discovered.

So, MR. Marketing Man, how do you convince a pile of people to buy ANY book on the rules? How do you convince them that a JEA at $199 is significantly enough better than J/R or BRD at their prices to get them to buy it?

You will convince some. You won't convince most. Will the "some" quantity of buyers make the effort worth it, or do you need to drop the price to $39.95?

[jumpmaster]

talked with some of my peezos today...one remembered paying something in the neighborhood of $80 for the last version. Both of them said $150 easy.

I guess it comes down to this - those that realize the value of the JEA will be willing to spend the $. Those that don't will be willing to pontificate and moan about how Papa C is "gettin' rich off us po' fokes!" by charging outragous prices.

Get rich - just get me the damn JEA!

[GarthB]

Originally posted by Rich Ives
"Using your (ahem) logic, a Lexus should be priced at $5,000."

I don't think so. (For one thing, they cost more than that to make and no one still in business is that stupid.)

To increase sales you can increase the desire to own one (marketing) or lower the price, or both.

If there are sufficient alternatives, and/or the alternatives serve the purpose of most, then you must really hit the marketing hard to get enough people convinced to buy your product versus the alternative.

BUT, you must, in the long run, recover your costs and make a profit.

Costs for a book include, of course, a writer's royalty which includes a minimum guarantee. Per unit printing costs will vary by the quantity ordered (sales volume). Then you have advertising and distribution costs. You still have to determine how many you have to sell at various price/cost combinations to meet your objectives.

In the current environment, too high a cost for the book will lead to illegal copying, rather than sales, just as the music and movie business has discovered.

So, MR. Marketing Man, how do you convince a pile of people to buy ANY book on the rules? How do you convince them that a JEA at $199 is significantly enough better than J/R or BRD at their prices to get them to buy it?

You will convince some. You won't convince most. Will the "some" quantity of buyers make the effort worth it, or do you need to drop the price to $39.95?

(Sigh)

I'm sorry. Of course you're right. Rats are always right. Forgive me. I'm wrong, again. Shame on me. An education, experience and success must have gone to my head. I keep forgetting that everyone knows more about marketing than marketing people. It's the same thing lawyers and umpires experience.

[Tim C]

Rich's post show why some people umpire and some are rats.

Rats look for cheese in the "easiest location" . . . why argue with a rat that has no clue of what the value of an item is to a well prepared, ever learning, caring umpire?

If you argue with rats you just start to smell . . .

Tee

[GarthB]

Originally posted by Tim C
Rich's post show why some people umpire and some are rats.

Rats look for cheese in the "easiest location" . . . why argue with a rat that has no clue of what the value of an item is to a well prepared, ever learning, caring umpire?

If you argue with rats you just start to smell . . .

Tee

Tee:

No, seriously, it is my fault. One of my many flaws is over-estimating the intelligence of adults who seemingly have at least mastered the science of posting on the internet. This leads me to take short cuts in my posts.

I assumed, especially after my post to Peter, that a reader would have understood that my posts were not meant to be specific, but rather a general discussion regarding pricing.

As I said earlier, the cost of producing and marketing a product has nothing to do with what a consumer will pay for that product. They simply don't care. They are motivated by what it's value is to them, in any sense of that word. They then make a simple decision: is that "value" worth more or less than the price? In other words, what is more important to them at that time, the product or the money?

Now, what I left unsaid, and foolishly assumed as a given, is that if the price point at which a product would sell is below the cost of producing and marketing the product, obviously, the product will not be made. Except of course in those rare examples of utter marketing failure.

Peter guesses that only 100 people would purchase the JEA. My disagreement with that is based on the information I have that the J/R sells more than that. I'm not sure, but I would guess the BRD also sells more than that. I am convinced the demand for the JEA would, initially, be greater than for either of those books.

The concept that people would buy a copy and then make illegal copies for friends obviously is a valid concern in today's market place. It is a factor in pricing, but not the determining factor.

My original statment that I would pay $199 for a legal updated copy of the J/R is valid. I would pay that. But since I have not done any studies on the subject, let's assume that a lower figure is more appropriate. Let's say , oh, $89 turns out to be an accurate price for the definitive 700 page work on the Official Rules of Baseball.

To those who still believe that $30 pricing means more revenue due to more sales, let's point out that it would take three times the volume to generate the same revenue. However, the costs of product and marketing would nearly be tripled as well (depending on the economy of scale). Thus the gross profit margin, one of the key motivators for bringing the product to market, (sorry, but this is still a wonderful capitalistic country) would be far less.

As for illegal copies: the costs in copying a 700 page book and finding a method to bind it would cost the average crook $40 to $50, not counting the time involved. Are there some who do this? Sure, Rats are everywhere. But for most of us the price difference in having the genuine article is worth the difference in cost.

Now, I'm sure I've left something out. I neither have the time nor inclination to conduct marketing seminars for Rats. At least not for free.

[His High Holiness]

Originally posted by GarthB

I assumed, especially after my post to Peter, that a reader would have understood that my posts were not meant to be specific, but rather a general discussion regarding pricing.



Peter guesses that only 100 people would purchase the JEA. My disagreement with that is based on the information I have that the J/R sells more than that. I'm not sure, but I would guess the BRD also sells more than that. I am convinced the demand for the JEA would, initially, be greater than for either of those books.

Garth;

In my original post, I was trying to accomplish three things:

1. I was pulling your chain. I thought that the " " was dead giveaway. I will now try to be serious so as not to be misunderstood again.

2. I tried to point out that umpires are terminally cheap ba$tards who think that others owe them a free lunch.

3. My last point was directed at the idea that the new JEA might be in digital format. Given what has happened to digital music with Napster like technology on the loose, I believe that a digital JEA would be ripe for theft. See point 2.

For the record, I have no idea how many copies of the JEA would sell and at what price. I paid $75 for mine about 9 years ago. Inflation and added material would indicate a price in the $150 range for a hardcopy loose leaf version that was like the original.

Peter

[Sal Giaco]

I hate to burst your bubble but Jim was talking about publishing an updated digital version of JEA on CD back when I was at umpire school in 2000. We were excited back then but it never came out. Now, four years later, rumors (according to Carl Childress) are surfacing again. I certainly am not waiting for a copy anytime soon - hopefully, they prove me wrong. Just my opinion. Carl said they were in negotiations but never game any timetable as to its availability. I would assume it would be sooner than later, but then again, I assumed that back in 2000. So I guess I learned my lesson, once again, never to A$$uME.

[PeteBooth]

Originally posted by GarthB

My original statment that I would pay $199 for a legal updated copy of the J/R is valid. I would pay that. But since I have not done any studies on the subject, let's assume that a lower figure is more appropriate. Let's say , oh, $89 turns out to be an accurate price for the definitive 700 page work on the Official Rules of Baseball.

Garth IMO what's missing in all this discussion about marketing etc. is: Which audience are you appealing to:

In other words, we have fast food chains and equisite restaurants each appealing to a different audience.

Therefore, depending upon where one is in respect to their umpiring career will determine how much to spend.

Example; If you are HS umpire doing FED ball not that it wouldn't be good knowledge to purchase the JEA or J/R but it would probably do more damage then aid you because FED rules vs. OBR rules are vastly different in some instances.

To me since I umpire HS ball and a vast majority of leagues (excluding college) that use some of FED rules, the BRD is most valuable to me. Unless one makes it to the "BIG TIME" Strict OBR rules will not come into play.

Therefore, in summary umpiring is a hobby at least to me so I take a look at what tools I feel will be most beneficial using plus / minus system when determining cost.

Would I like to purchase the JEA - Yes but if it cost $150.00 or so not that I still wouldn't purchase it, but is it a MUST FACTOR.

Therfore, I would think (boy that's scary) that Jim wants to appeal to an audience aspiring to get to the BIG TIME.
The audience you are trying to appeal to will dictate the cost.

Pete Booth

[GarthB]

Pete wrote:

Garth IMO what's missing in all this discussion about marketing etc. is: Which audience are you appealing to:


Then, apparently you haven't read my earlier posts. This was indeed covered.

And once again, I have never intended any of this to be a complete treatise on marketing or a proposal for a job. I have tried to explain a few facts to those who do not understand pricing.

For a complete deatils on a complete study and its cost, email me an RFP and I'll get to work on it.