Quote:
Originally Posted by chapmaja
...I don't see this as a sure thing that the runner would have made it to second barring the obstruction, therefore I have him/her only protected to first base...
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I don't use "sure thing" as the standard. While it does need to be judged as the base the runner would have achieved, meaning that it is not an award as a penalty; the runner must have had a reasonably good chance to have reached the advanced base. The benefit of the doubt goes to the runner. This is a bit lower than a sure thing standard. That's what I do, anyway.