Quote:
Originally posted by GarthB
Peter:
As with any argument based, even loosely, on stats, yours may have some holes in it. I don't have the time to investigate this thoroughly, although it intriques me enough to put on my winter "to do list", but some thoughts that come to mind initially:
It is possible that with as few teams as Warren compares to our minor leagues, there could be a proportionate number of players who move on to the majors....at least for a while.
We have 102 minor league teams, not counting the Rookie League. (Sub Single A) How many of these players will make it to the show? What percentage is that of total players?
How many teamns does Warren refer to as minor league compatible? How many of those players make it to the show.
(I would even add a factor or less visibilty. I know the Aussie on the Mariners claims that there are several more back home as good as many ML players. National pride? maybe)
Your argument of population size determining the number of talented performers may also have some deficiencies...it certainly does when it comes to other skills such a music, painting, soccer.
I'm am not attemptingt to proliong this thread and more than it already has been. Warren has been to this country. He's seen our ball and he's seen his. His opinions are not based on third party descriptions. At this point, until the numbers are in and my visit to Australia completed, I cannot take your position at face value.
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Garth;
The numbers and stats are of secondary importance to the whole argument. I mentioned them as a possible explanation for the main argument, to wit: The PRIMARY question which I posed was:
Why would a player of single A quality or better continue to play ball in Australia? Economics and self interest demand that he go to America. Furthermore, economics and self interest demand that a scout would recruit him. Do you know of any MLB teams in win-at-all-cost America that would pass up on good players? Do you think that the Dodgers hired Jackie Robinson in the 1940's because they wanted to do be good citizens and promote civil rights? Not likely. They wanted to win, pure and simple, and they recognized that good talent was going to waste.
To bring this up to date, you wrote
"I know the Aussie on the Mariners claims that there are several more back home as good as many ML players."
If this is true, then Aussies must have a special brand of altruism not found anywhere else in the human race. Here is this Utopian country where ballplayers routinely pass up million dollar contracts all for the love of the game and country. Furthermore, jingoistic American owners routinely pass them by in favor of inferior American talent.
I can't buy any of that. If there was untapped talent in Australia of even AA quality, American owners would be dangling hundreds of thousands of dollars in signing bonuses in front of their faces. And just like players from Mexico, Venuzuela, the Dominican Republic, etc, the Aussie boys would sign on the dotted line and fly to America.
Unless of course, their brains are wired differently from the rest of the human race. If that is the case, then Australia is so different from America that Warren's musings on umpiring are irrelevant to the American game. :)
Peter