Quote:
Originally posted by Nevadaref
How many officials do you think we need to test before someone would correctly guess all 100 questions? The answer is 2 to the 100th power. A huge number.
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Not quite. (Frankly, I'm shocked that anyone with a degree in mathematics would use probability in this manner.) In a random sample of 2^100 officials all guessing, you would expect one to get a perfect score. However, reality is not the same as probability! The first official guessing may get 100%. They may all get 100%, it may so happen that no one scores 100%.
Even more shocking, however, is the "guessing penalty." Under that rule, there would be 10 qualified officials in the entire country.