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NevadaRef
Your explanation re: 'very likely' is right on target - although the assumption that the distribution of any population is bell-like is . . . an assumption. In most of the populations we look at in life, experience shows that to be the case. But it is not the only way things can be distributed.
As to the 'guess-effect' in standardized testing, what choice do we have other than to be aware that it's there and, perhaps, supplement this kind of testing with a floor test, a game conditions review?
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