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David, I really think your giving way too much credit to the officials signal being the guide to the runner for whether or not a catch is made. I doubt very much if 10% of the time the runners are judging whether to tag up or not on a signal by the official. I will reserve that 10% for traps.
For the most part, at second, you are watching the fielder and at third/first your listening to the coach.
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