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Notice that most of these posts are suggesting that you ignore percentages and learn the rule properly. The key to getting block/charge right every time is two steps:
1. Know the rule.
2. Referee the defense, esp. watching for LGP.
Once you've got that, you'll know what you're seeing.
That said, I'll add this about your particular case: the defender who is already falling down — literally on his way to the floor — prior to contact is not going to be disadvantaged by contact, and thus contact will not be a foul.
On the other hand, defenders who have LGP are BY RULE permitted to turn or otherwise move to protect themselves from the contact. If that's what you see, then responsibility for contact will remain with the offense.
You have to judge what you're seeing and make the call.
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Never trust an atom: they make up everything.
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