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"The base the runner tried for" has zero bearing on what the award should be. Maybe she didn't try for third because after the defender had obstructed her, slowing her down, tieing her up her at second and breaking her stride and momentum, she didn't think she could safely make it to third.
The award is as you mentioned- "whichever base the umpire judges the runner would have reached, had she not been obstructed".
This whole "she didn't try for it" notion comes up time and again. It just simply isn't the case or how the rule is written or interpreted. Such an interpretation would almost beg the fielders to obstruct the runner! Just stop their advance and they'd never be awarded the next base.
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