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would have been reached
The rule says "which would have been reached, in the umpire's judgement, had there been no obstruction".
To award the next base there has to be some indication that the runner would have reached it with no OBS. If the runner stops at the point of contact in a direct overrun line past 1st and makes no move or feint toward 2nd, then there should be no award of 2nd. And even with a move or feint, there has to be the judgement that 2nd was reachable. You might have to award 1st if the OBS prevented the runner from returning directly to 1st if the applicable rules require that.
On the other hand, if the runner stops at the point of contact in a direct overrun line past 1st and sees that the ball is bouncing around the outfield, resumes running and is thrown out at 3rd; it would be reasonable to award 3rd if the OBS was enough to make up for the margin of the tag beating the runner at 3rd.
The rule and award are there to keep runners from being out or reduced in progress when illegally impdeded by a defender; but only when the umpire judges that the runner would have reached the base if not impeded. It's all on our judgement of would have, not just contact, not could have, etc.
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