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Its always seemed to me that on the big money events, amateur public sporting/gambling opinion drives the spread. On the lower money events, its the more studious gamblers that bother to get involved and the spread should more closely reflect what is safely predictable. If the spread is off in a small money event, more money will go there from the students of the game and gambling, and the spread will come around to more approximate what studious observers predict will actually happen.
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