Quote:
Originally posted by DownTownTonyBrown
This is the engineer in me coming out.... a 1 in a 100 shot => 1% opportunity to make 3 points. 3 free throws, assuming 75% success = 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 => 42% opportunity to make 3 points. I don't actually make calculations like this during a game BUT THESE TWO ARE NOT EQUAL by a very large, disparate amount. If you make that call, you are determining the game because you just provided a 40% great opportunity for that team to catch up. If you don't make the call you may have allowed the defense to illegally influence the 1% opportunity. For this particular situation I think it is better to allow the possible 1% influence than it is to assuredly CREATE the 40% opportunity.
The fat lady may not be singing but she is warming up long before the last second. 
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Sorry, Tony....while I agree with your math and theory, it is NOT the official that is providing the disparity to one team or another. We, as officials, do not make up things, we react to the players actions on the court. The defensive player, by fouling a "shooter" 50 feet from the basket is the person responsible for turning that 1% chance into a 40% chance.