Quote:
Originally posted by DownTownTonyBrown
This is the engineer in me coming out.... a 1 in a 100 shot => 1% opportunity to make 3 points. 3 free throws, assuming 75% success = 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 => 42% opportunity to make 3 points. I don't actually make calculations like this during a game BUT THESE TWO ARE NOT EQUAL by a very large, disparate amount. If you make that call, you are determining the game because you just provided a 40% great opportunity for that team to catch up. If you don't make the call you may have allowed the defense to illegally influence the 1% opportunity. For this particular situation I think it is better to allow the possible 1% influence than it is to assuredly CREATE the 40% opportunity.
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Unbelievable. My jaw is on the floor. Your quote "If you make that call, you are determining the game because you just provided a 40% great opportunity for that team to catch up." is the one that burns me up. It's not about you, it's about the participants. The participant committed the foul. The fouling player is the one who handed the 40% greater opportunity to the team that was fouled, not the official.
The math thing is ridiculous. Say I have a player shooting 85% on FTs but only 15% on threes. Anytime she gets fouled on a three-point attempt, you should ignore it based on your logic.