Oddly enough, I had just posted the different Evans and Roder criteria for judging the validity of a tag on a thread on the umpire.org site just before this play happened last night.
To me, the Evans interp always made more sense and was more consistent with the actual text of the rules, and I thought Welke's call was correct.
I believe Rich Ives hits the key distinction in his post above - the tag itself did not result in Varitek (involuntarily) losing control of the ball. His lack of body control did.
But, since "voluntary release" is not a criteria for establishing the validity of a tag (unless you subscribe to Roder's hypothesis, of course), and Varitek clearly had "secure possession" of the ball before, during, and immediately after the tag, it's a good tag.
JM
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