In general, I think seeing the result of contact that may be intentional or flagrant can usefully inform the decision. And, in the case of neutralizing an opponent's obvious advantageous position, it is very much an after-the-fact decision. However, all the examples I'm coming up with have to do with an IF or FF during a live ball.
The "circular reasoning" part of your question is intriguing. In addition to allowing the result of the foul inform your decision, there is the matter of the more exacting criteria for intentional and flagrant fouls. Strictly by rule, a foul you wouldn't judge intentional during a live ball, shouldn't be judged intentional during a dead ball. The rule is the same.
But that leaves us with a potential conundrum which is that common foul contact which occurs entirely within a dead ball period, if it impacts the subsequent live ball play, technically must be passed on. But I do not believe that such a ruling is within the intent or spirit of the rules. So perhaps the "line" between common and intentional shouldn't always be drawn in the same place for both live ball and dead ball situations.
However, in the OP, holding the jumper prior to the toss seems to be a clear case of "contact...when not making a legitimate attempt to play the ball or a player". I'm probably going to have an intentional T here if I see it. And if pressed, I'm going to judge that the fouler's intent was to keep the clock from starting. It probably ain't true, but I'm unwilling to let this punk get off on a technicality like that.
But I remain unconvinced about the distraction issue. While not entirely in the spirit of fair play, I have a difficult time conceiving of too many distractions I would deem an illegal advantage. Having said that, in your poke in the back scenario, if it's a non-jumper poking a jumper, it's a clear violation for breaking the plane of the circle. I don't have my book handy so I won't assert this with certainty, but I believe both jumpers are required to be in their own half of the circle. So a poke in the back by the other jumper would also be a violation. Similar "protections" exist for players on the lane during a free throw, for the thrower during a free throw, and the thrower during a throw-in. So I guess there are more situations than I first considered where such a distracting act would actually be illegal. Though, in general, I don't think that was the reason those rule exist, and I still don't consider distracting an opponent illegal, just bad basketball. However, if the Fed wants to make it explicitly illegal to distract an opponent, I would be absolutely giddy to whack somebody for screaming at the shooter or yelling "BALL BALL BALL..."
