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Originally Posted by Dan_ref
But let's get back on topic: if a shot is errant how can you possibly judge it has a chance to go in?
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Does "errant" just mean that the shot misses? If so, then lots of shots that miss have a CHANCE of going in while they're still in the air and outside the cylinder. They're close, they just don't actually go in.
It's quite possible that I'm misunderstanding the nuances of "errant". If it means "clearly short", then I agree with Dan_ref. But in normal language, lots of shots have a reasonable chance of going in but then miss.