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Originally Posted by BigGuy
On a sit like that, I will be more likely to call the play safe. The words "secure possession" is very open ended. If he picks up the ball, I KNOW he has secure possession; if he doesn't, then I have to make an assumption. I find it difficult to make an OUT call on an assumption that the fielder has "secure possession". My first umpire teacher once said - if you can't see it you can't call it. The same applies here. If his hand is rolled to the side and I can tell he has it securely, I'll make the out call.
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BigGuy,
As DG suggests above, at the time the runner touches the base (which is the point in time that matters), you make an initial/provisional judgement as to whether or not the fielder has (had) secure possession of the ball while touching the base. If he clearly did not (in your judgment), you can go ahead and rule safe.
If it appears he did, but you are not 100% certain that the ground is not providing some essential support which only makes it APPEAR that he has secure possession, you tell him to lift it. If he does so in a manner that suggests he had secure possession, you bang the out. If he does so otherwise, you indicate safe.
Sometimes, you just got to umpire.
JM