Well boy haven't we gotten this one going! I have to agree with both sides, I know I am riding the fence! I know what ASA says and I do that, with nobody on and 2 person I have rotated and button hooked and see the OBS at 1st base, at that point I have a job to do, I look at the ball and fielder and make a SWAG of how long the runner has till the fielder gets control of the ball and can get the ball back into a position to get my runner out....now guess speed of runner if she wouldn't have had OBS, this is my initial base award for OBS. Now if this is a new runner and she ends up being faster than I thought you are right I will protect to home, possibly if I see it unfold and realize I was mistaken in my initial judgement....and as you said nobody knows but me that I adjusted my view of the play. I think Irish even admitted that,
"Will I take such a thing into consideration? Rarely, but I will if I believe I underestimated a runner's ability."
Now do we do that on every play, I hope the more experienced you get at this craft we call umpiring the more you get it right initially so you don't have to rethink it during the play as often.
I mean another example is the girl goes down hard after rounding 1st, knocks the wind out of her....at that moment the right fielder (who was playing WAY too far in for the hit) is still 50-75 feet from the ball with it rolling away from her into the corner of a large foul (live ball) area....now the runner struggles to her feet and hobbles to 1st now do we give her 1st cause she didn't try to advance farther.....well I am giving her 3rd (at least
) based on the contact and the timing of a play being made on her at the point of OBS.