[greymule]

"no jail time" is my prediction

Mine, too. The lawyers and activists will soon transform this legal case into a political case. Bonds would lose the legal case; he won't lose the political one.

Two other points:

1. There may be more people in the United States today than 50 years ago, but the pool of ballplayers is smaller—even including the Dominican Republic and Japan—to fill many more teams. In 1957 a typical high school would see at least 100 boys go out for baseball, and the coach would have to cut some good players. Today high school coaches cut no good players.

2. It may be conventional media "wisdom" that Babe Ruth was a beer-drinking fat guy, but he was actually the best pitcher in baseball for 7 years, and then proceeded to hit, routinely, more homers per season than any other entire team. He was also a good baserunner and a very fine outfielder. Yes, he was overweight at the end of his career, but look at pictures of him 15 years into his career and tell me you see a fat guy.

I'll qualify my prediction. If they find out that Bonds didn't declare a bunch of income, then he will do some time.