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Originally Posted by fitump56
I would disagree. Protect can mean "protect the ability to advance freely" regardless of the outcome of that advancement. I fall to the side that an OB on a runner should not penalize him to his last safely touched base. It should penalize the defense and do so by awarding at least the base ahead when the R is clearly attempting an advance.
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According to all sources available to me, the umpire must immediately decide to protect the runner to the base he would most likely reach safely had the obstruction not occurred. You cannot protect a runner forward to an occupied base. He could not reach that occupied base safely had the obstruction not occurred.
You can extend, revise, or end the protection based on post-obstruction evidence -- that is, what occurs during continuous action after the obstruction. So you may very well end up protecting him forward. But initially, you have little choice but to protect him back on his retreat.
I agree that an obstructed runner who is making a bona fide attempt to advance when obstructed should indeed always be protected to that advance base. I've argued that for many years on these forums. But a runner cannot make a bona fide advance to an occupied base.