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Originally Posted by WestMichBlue
Sit: R1 on 2B, batter hits pop fly over F5's head and both F6 and F7 chase, but the ball drops between them. R1 holds up on fly ball, starts to run when it drops, then gives up and returns to 2B.
Meanwhile, the B-R rounds 1B going full speed to 2B; bumps into F3 and is knocked off her feet. By time she gets up, the ball is returning to the infield so she retreats to 1B.
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I'm assuming you are looking at this paragraph in RS 36
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When an obstructed runner is awarded a base that they would have reached had obstruction not occurred and a preceding runner is on that base, the obstructed runner shall be awarded that base and the runner occupying it is entitled to the next base without liability to be put out.
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(Darn, I like the pdf rule book!)
There is still a judgment to be made on the base she would have reached, and the RS does not say that you may not consider the full spectrum of the play in progress at the time before making the judgment. It is just that ASA wants this judgment to be made at, or near, the time of the OBS and not to wait to see how the total play unfolds.
The way to handle this depends on when things happened. The umpire is not required to have tunnel vision when making the base protection judgment. To make the proper judgment, he will already have to be aware of where the ball is and what is going on with it. If at the time he makes the judgment, R1 is off 2B and apparently going to attempt to advance, but things unfold as you describe, BR would still be awarded 2B and R1 forced to 3B.
OTOH, if R1 has already started retreating, or otherwise the umpire judges she ain't going nowhere, then protecting the BR to 1B is reasonable and proper, since that is the base to which she would have advanced (ITUJ) had there been no obstruction.