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Originally Posted by ChuckElias
Upon further review, according to Wikipedia, the Chicago franchise's overall win-loss record is 9747-9398 (.532). That's over 19,000 games. It includes Chicago White Stockings games from the old National Association.
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So half of those games were at wrigley.
And half of the games at wrigley (let's say) the Cubs won.
So this is the first time out of 5000 games that the Cubs won at home where they won by a score of 1-0 and the only run was off a lead off home run. Not nearly as remarkable.
We can whittle the odds down a little further: how many of those 5000 games did the Cubs win by a score of 1-0 at home? I'm guessing 1000 at the very, very most. So now your 19000+ to 1 shot becomes at best a 1000 to 1 shot. Still worth noting, kinda I guess...I wonder, as comparison, how many times the Cubs won 1-0 on a walkoff HR? Or on a HR with 1 out in the bottom of the 5th...or....? IOW what's the odds that any baseball game is won by the home team where the only run scored is by a solo HR? I would have to guess, oh...let's say...I dunno...maybe 1000 to 1, at the very most. Especially over the last 30 yrs or so with lowered mounds, practical elimination of the beanball, juiced balls and juiced players.
So maybe it's not such a big deal afterall.