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I think we're all focusing too much on where the throw comes from and not enough on where the catcher goes. I'm thinking as I'm typing (a dangerous combination, I know), but:
If F2 stays at the plate, it will likely be a "crash". 1BE.
If F2 moves straight up the first base line, any swipe / dive will be right at the corner of the plate. 1BE
If F2 moves out into the field, or up the third base line, it will likely be a swipe. 3BE
Even though 3BE is only one of the three cases, this case happens 87.432% of the time.
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