A quick analysis of our group reveals that despite leading up until now, I will not finish first.
I lead #2 by 10, #3 by 20, #4 by 30, and #5 by 40.
That's not much of a lead since each semifinal is worth 120 pts and the champion is worth 160.
The key reason that I won't win is that I only have one of my two finalists still alive. That means that I get a zero for one of the semifinals.
I have Ohio State winning it all, so those are my only possible remaining points, but #3 "Rogers 1" also has Ohio State winning, but has them beating UCLA. So if that happens he will pick up 120 points on me and beat me by 100. If Ohio State beats Florida in the final that would mean that I would remain ahead of him, but not #5 BktBallRef, who has that exact matchup in his Championship game. So he would leap over me by 80. That means I can't possibly win it.
If Florida wins the championship, current #2 AllHeart is our winner with current #4 BigWhistle finishing 20 points behind. BigWhistle has no way of finishing first.
If UCLA wins tmp44 jumps up to #1 no matter if they beat Georgetown or Ohio State in the final game.
If Georgetown wins it all, Stripes takes the cake.
I'm rooting for Stripes.
Someone please correct me, if I did any of that figuring wrong.