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Although I'm not an umpire by trade, most good U's will vary their initial position between the tackles from play to play. It's when the U is in the same spot down after down that QBs and coaches will start to use it to their advantage.
As for reading pass plays--I have yet to encounter a HS team that I couldn't figure out what the general type of play was the second the ball was snapped just by reading the guards, but a lot of that comes from great coaching during my playing days. College is a little different and trickier, but then I'm an FJ so I'm usually keying the tackle unless my WR is pressed.
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