I think the real question you're asking is when does the "usual throwing motion" start on a layup? My answer is when you know he's going for a layup. If you know what the player is attempting you have seen the ususal motion associated with it. That's how you recognized it.
As far as passing on the foul, I try not to pass too much on layup fouls. A player making a layup has gotten great position and is pretty vunerable. Make a clear statement that you aren't going to tolerate contact in that situation.
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