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Originally Posted by Kevzebra
That is part of knowing the difference between a foul and just a touch.
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The difference between a foul and a touch is not the difference between the shot going in or not. A player may get hit hard, then throw it up, hoping for 2 free throws, nothing more. Some of these shots go in, too.
In deciding what is a foul and what is not, what I try to see is the trajectory of the ball as it leaves the hand, the shooter's follow through, sometimes even the shooter's facial expression. Sometimes none of these things are visible or helpful, but whether the shot is good or not has very little to do with it for me.