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Let's examine the various shot trajectories. Bank shots aside, can we agree that if a shot is blocked before it has reached the halfway point, it is not goaltending?
Can we also assume that long shots, with their flattened trajectories, do not usually get blocked on the way down.
That would leave close-in shots, where the majority of flight paths are a simple parabolic arch. These are the shots that are typically goal-tended and I would suggest that they are on the way down (or off target) when they are blocked.
Bank shots (especially line drives) can be different, and this principle will not help.
I would still suggest that this rule of thumb is accurate for the majority of shots where goaltending might be called.
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