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Decent rule of thumb - the moment the pitcher cocks the arm, "ready to make a play," LBR is off. If the arm just stays there, and YOU realize there's no imminent throw, then you should assume the runner should be aware that there's no imminent throw, and LBR is on. If the arm keeps making fake throwing motions, LBR stays off.
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"Many baseball fans look upon an umpire as a sort of necessary evil to the luxury of baseball, like the odor that follows an automobile." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Christy Mathewson
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