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Irish, I think you need to produce this caseplay, as it flies in the face of all other interpretations of OBS I've ever seen. I can't find it myself, and only find the one referenced above that directs us to call OBS and award 3rd base.
We have never been told to judge whether the runner would have reached the base after the base where the obstruction occurs. By rule, OBS should be called on F2 (she is not protected due to fielding a batted ball immediately after she decides not to field the batted ball, and in any case, this exemption from OBS can only be applied to one fielder - F1 in this case). BR goes to 1st.
As to the "she would never have made it to first" contingent, how do you know. Absent the OBS, perhaps F1 is unable to tag and has to throw it - and you never know what will happen on a throw.
And Tom - where in the world are you getting the idea that sending the BR back to the plate is a viable option in ANY scenario. There is no OBS award that allows you to do this, and I've never even heard of someone trying to apply such a ruling.
Guys, this is simple cut-and-dried obstruction - BR to first, all others advance a base.
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"Many baseball fans look upon an umpire as a sort of necessary evil to the luxury of baseball, like the odor that follows an automobile." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Christy Mathewson
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