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I agree with the majority on this one. But I have a couple points to add to the discussion. For me, a lot of it depends on how they got into this situation. If the person who is being encircled is moving at all, there's going to be contact, and it is 99% a foul. I mean 99% of the time, it's a foul on the circle-r. But if the ball was grabbed by both players up in the air, and then brought down such that the circled player now has the ball in front of him, it's possible for the circle-r to maintain control of the ball without contact so that a held ball is the correct call. If I think the circle-r is trying to accomplish that maneuver and if she seems to be largely avoiding contact, I'll call a held ball before the players get clear into the bear hug position. If the circle-d player is savvy enough to move enough that the circle-r can't maintain control without illegal contact, I'll call the foul quickly, without waiting for the bear hug. It's also prudent to watch for the circle-d player to travel, although if both players have some control, the travel call isn't appropriate.
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