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If it helps with the timing for you, point at the tag when you see it, and then make the call. This gives you the extra half-second you might need to say safe instead of out if the ball comes out (as in your 2nd scenario), and you are already pointing at the drop in that case. The delay is NOT a negative, and will keep you from making too early a call.
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"Many baseball fans look upon an umpire as a sort of necessary evil to the luxury of baseball, like the odor that follows an automobile." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Christy Mathewson
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