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There is no way to be clear on what would have happened on the third play, had OBS not occurred. It's very likely that runner would have slowed rounding first to pick of the ball, and THEN took off for 2nd after the bobble. If that's the case, the OBS no longer cost her any steps she would have had. I runner did not slow at all, then it's entirely possible (or probable, even) that the outfielder would not have fired the ball into second for a possible play (thus being part of the cause of the ensuing misplay by F4)... since if there wasn't a play, she's more likely to be simply tossing the ball into the 2nd baseman (who, incidentally, might not even be near the bag if there was no chance at getting an out at all).
There's a REASON we are told not to consider subsequent actions on a play like this. It is because the play would have unfolded completely differently - subsequent action (on the part of both sides) would have been completely different without the OBS... there's NO way to know what really would have happened.
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"Many baseball fans look upon an umpire as a sort of necessary evil to the luxury of baseball, like the odor that follows an automobile." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Christy Mathewson
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