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The directive to umpires is to make the judgment of the protected base (base the runner would have achieved without the OBS) at the time of the OBS. The guideline, as I have come to understand it, is that this includes all defensive action on the original play (meaning the fielding ability, etc., of F8 in your scenario), but not defensive action on subsequent action (meaning anything after the throw to F4).
This would mean that in your original scenario (the actual play), the BR would have likely been protected to 2nd and on her own after that.
So, applying this to your "what ifs"...
1) Runner safe, awarded 1B.
2) Runner safe, awarded 2B.
3) Runner out.
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Tom
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