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I think most coaches have made up their mind about what they will do in this situation, and then they stick to their guns. Jim Calhoun, for example, in that situation, has adamantly refused to do it and says he won't. (See UConn v. Syracuse in the Big East game.)
I think the logic is that if you foul, you actually put losing in regulation into the equation -- no matter how slight a chance. While not fouling usually means overtime at worst and gives you two chances to win (either they miss the three or, even if they hit it, you make a buzzer beater the other way).
And that's how it played out. Washington did have two chances to win, but both things went wrong. I think the one thing in favor of fouling there was the foul trouble -- Romar had to know he was in trouble in overtime.
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