I'm glad this conversation started. It is a good one to have just prior to the season, because it seems to be a prevalent thought that the way ASA wants/tells us to call this is unfair. I disagree with that, and agree 100% with what Mike said and what ASA tells us.
What the "Subsequent action" faction usually leans on to support it's notion that you should take subsequent action into account when determining your award (even if you do so under the hat as proposed by Mike2 (I guess this makes me Mike3!)) is the idea that "if not for the OBS, the runner would have scored when the ball got away from F5 --- after all, she would have been 3-4 steps further along her trek, and thus would have been 3-4 steps closer to home when the ball got away. And since she was only thrown out at home by a hair, obviously she would have scored without the OBS."
What this idea neglects is the fact that the location of the baserunner also affects the actions of the fielders. It's entirely possible that if there was no OBS, and BR was 3-4 steps closer to third base when the fielder was beginning her throw, she would not have thrown to third base at all, having no play there. She would have made a normal-strength throw into either home or a cutoff person. The play, and thus the error, at third base would have never happened.
We, unless our names are Carnac the Umpire, cannot know what truly would have happened had the OBS not occurred - this is the underlying reason why we MUST determine the awarded base at the time of the OBS. Everything that happens afterward is tainted by the OBS itself - both the runner's path and the fielders' actions.
And this logic DOES extend to the play in the outfield, even though MikeR gave a bit of an escape clause there. Picture this:
Batter hits what appears to be a routine double that will not get past the outfielders, but is between RF and CF. While rounding first, F3 is standing in BR's path, between 1st and 2nd, and you rule OBS. You immediately think DOUBLE, and award 2B. BR stumbles, slows, and tries for second anyway. F9, seeing the attempt for 2nd, but now a step or 2 away from fielding the ball, hurries to get the ball to try to make a play at 2nd, and muffs the play, the ball just rolling under her glove. BR is then thrown out by F8, backing up the play, at third base.
The Subsequent Action Faction would award 3B. After all, F9 flubbed the play, BR was slowed by 3 steps by F3, and was only thrown out at 3B by 1 step.
However, without the OBS, it's entirely possible that F9 does NOT hurry the play - she has no chance at an out at 2B, and no reason to suspect BR is trying for 3rd. F9 makes the play cleanly and throws in to 2nd base, where BR is easily safe.
The intent of the OBS award is not to penalize the defense, but to rectify the play - EVENING the playing field, not tilting it in the offense's favor. It is to prevent defense from gaining advantage by obstructing the runner - but not meant to PENALIZE them either. Too many people I've heard have a DESIRE to penalize - after all, defense committed an illegal act. However, it has been judged by the rule-writers that the "penalty" for this is NOT to penalize, but to rectify. For us to rule otherwise, even if "no one will know", is contrary to the intent of our Association's wishes.
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"Many baseball fans look upon an umpire as a sort of necessary evil to the luxury of baseball, like the odor that follows an automobile." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Christy Mathewson
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