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I don't totally disagree but a good catcher's instinct is to tag the batter if he thinks the catch/no catch of the pitch is close.
The batter does not have that instinct. A batter almost (I'll give you the few freak times, but not on a swing, he's still got to uncoil) always hesitates before going to first on an uncaught third strike. This is true even if it goes to the backstop, and then, the catcher has no shot.
I believe that unless it's a pre-planned steal of third, which, with a pitch in or near the dirt, the odds of getting the runner are pretty slim anyway, I would still, instincively, apply a tag on the batter.
Also, your scenario can only occur with less than two outs, otherwise the tag of the batter would end the inning anyway. That, coupled with the chance of first base being occupied and the overall rarity of the steal of third, makes it sound like you're picking on Cindy Crawford's mole.
OK, I'm not that pretty.
D
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