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Whether that ball hit the ground or not - even some of the replay angles are inconclusive, so I doubt the PU was 100% sure - we all know that because of the angle and from experience.
In this case, where the PU can't be 100% sure - if he sees the catcher walk to his dugout and toss the ball to the mound when he could have EASILY tagged the batter - then the PU is at least 100% sure that the catcher has no doubt. Still not a deciding factor, but worth considering.
I believe the PU allowed the batter's reaction (by running to 1st base) to incorrectly influence his decision. We've all experienced this - a player reacts differently than expected, so we question what we saw. We make calls based on player reactions more than we want to admit.
If he had a chance to do it again, I'm sure the PU would react differently. I recommend the trigger or shooting gun method for calling strikes and using the fist for out calls. Unfortunately there is no uniform mechanic for signaling a dropped 3rd stike - that's one reason that catcher's normally make the tag on questionable catches, and why we can rely on their reactions a little more.
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