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Tom,
Since I'm the one which posted the original interp from the NUS, I'll address this and then duck!
The umpire should determine where the runner would have ended up safely had not obstruction occurred when the play happens. That means the protection shouldn't be adjusted by subsequent play.
It the scenario given here (ball knocked around the OF) sounds as if there has yet to be a subsequent play of any type. If you remember correctly, the play that raised this issue about a year ago involved an umpire changing the protection after a throw to the infield bounced away from the player covering 2B.
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The bat issue in softball is as much about liability, insurance and litigation as it is about competition, inflated egos and softball.
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