Dave, I understand that you are trying to understand this but I think you are making it more difficult than it has to be.
In explaining 7.06(b) J/R states...
"When there is obstruction and no concurrent play on the obstructed runner (other than the BR before first base with a batter ball remaining in the infield), the ball remains live and the umpire must IMMEDIATELY (my emphasis) decide what base the runner would have acquired (or returned to safely) had the obstruction not occured. He then protects the runner to that base."
Furthermore, "An umpire may have to consider action occurring after obstruction in determining a runner's award or protection (or neither) An obstructed runner's protection or award can be revised each time something happens that would change the award or protection."
Your supposed to determine immediately what base you are protecting R2 to immediately upon obstruction. In reality, I would think, since you don't have to tell anyone, you can take a little time to figure it out as the play unfolds. The award can be revised if, for instance, a fielder falls, the ball gets by him, etc.
In referring to the BR getting second, I only meant that he should get second if the throw goes home and you have to kill the play, but you realize that R2 would have reached second regarless of what happened at the plate. If the BR just rounded 1st and watched the play at the plate and you had to kill the play because of obstruction, then I think the BR gets 1st since he wasn't taking 2nd on the throw.
If you only protect R2 to 3rd, then he advances at his own risk, past his protected base.
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Well I am certainly wiser than this man. It is only too likely that neither of us has any knowledge to boast of; but he thinks that he knows something which he does not know, whereas I am quite conscious of my ignorance. At any rate it seems that I am wiser than he is to this small extent, that I do not think that I know what I do not know. ~Socrates
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