USA World Cup Scenarios
 

OK, figuring out all the ramifications in this crazy scoring system is tough, but I think I have it.
First – if England wins (and since its 0-0 with 15 to go, I’m going with an assumption of a 1-0 victory)

It would be Slovenia and England tied at 4, US with 2, Algeria 0. We play Algeria, Slov and Eng play each other…
If either Slov or Eng win, we merely need a win over Algeria to advance – a tie and we’re out.
If Slov/Eng is a tie, we need a win, and it would be 5-5-5-0. Tiebreaker is points differential. Slov would have 1 plus the score vs Eng; Eng would have 0 plus that same score. We have 0 plus our score. So if our score and their score are the same, it goes to the next TB, Goals Scored – Slov and us have 3, Eng 2 … so assuming Eng beats Alg 1-0, we need to merely have OUR tie be the same pts as their tie (or better)… we lose the next TB of Goals Against.

If Algeria wins (again, 1-0).

It would be Slov 4, Alg 3, US 2, Eng 1.
Regardless of Slov vs Eng, if we win, we’re in.
If we tie or lose, we’re out.

If England and Algeria Tie (0-0 or 1-1).

It would be Slov 4, US 2, Eng 2, Alg 1
If we win, we’re in.
If we tie, we need Eng and Slov to tie, and again, same TB’s – we need our tied score to be at least as much as Eng/Slov’s tied score.
If we lose, we’re out.

So first, the worst thing that can happen in the next 15 minutes is for England to win. If that doesn’t happen, we win and we’re in, lose and we’re out. Second, we’re also better off if Algeria doesn’t win, as it gives us a decent chance of advancing if we tie Algeria, vs NO chance if Algeria does win.

Guess we're down to this... wtg Algeria!

If we win, we’re in.
If we tie, we need Eng and Slov to tie – we need our tied score to be at least as much as Eng/Slov’s tied score.
If we lose, we’re out.

A US-ALG draw and an ENG loss puts the US through too.

If both games are draws, the US only has to stay within 1 goal of whatever ENG scores to move on.
e.g. US 0:0 ALG, ENG 1:1 SLV => tiebreaker to US.

Ah, true - good points, thanks. One other - if Eng ties 2-2 and we tie 0-0 (or any other 2 point difference), we have a 50-50 shot, as they will draw lots. Great way to break a tie, eh?

It happened back in 1990 with Ireland and the Netherlands, although both teams advanced to the next round.