NE vs Colts safety

[APG]

Originally Posted by CT1

Not necessarily. The covering official would have to judge whether the ball would have gone into the EZ absent the muff. If so, safety. If not, TB.

That's not what the rule says...and there is no case book play that says anything about having to make that judgement. If the ball isn't near or at rest...even if the defense muffs the ball when the ball probably wouldn't have gone into touch, impetus is still attributed to the offense.

A.R. 3.15 IMPETUS—BLOCKED PUNT—END ZONE

Fourth-and-10 on A7. A’s punt is blocked by B1. B2 muffs the ball at the A10, and the ball rebounds into A’s end zone where: a) A2 falls on the ball; b) A3 and B3 simultaneously recover the ball; c) the ball rolls over the end line.

Rulings:
a) Safety. (3-15-3)
b) Touchdown. (11-2-1, 3-15-3)
c) Safety. (3-15-3, 11-5-1)
NOTE: If A had recovered in the field of play, it would have been A’s ball, first-and-10.

[JRutledge]

Originally Posted by APG

That's not what the rule says...and there is no case book play that says anything about having to make that judgement. If the ball isn't near or at rest...even if the defense muffs the ball when the ball probably wouldn't have gone into touch, impetus is still attributed to the offense.

A.R. 3.15 IMPETUS—BLOCKED PUNT—END ZONE

Fourth-and-10 on A7. A’s punt is blocked by B1. B2 muffs the ball at the A10, and the ball rebounds into A’s end zone where: a) A2 falls on the ball; b) A3 and B3 simultaneously recover the ball; c) the ball rolls over the end line.

Rulings:
a) Safety. (3-15-3)
b) Touchdown. (11-2-1, 3-15-3)
c) Safety. (3-15-3, 11-5-1)
NOTE: If A had recovered in the field of play, it would have been A’s ball, first-and-10.

I cannot speak for the NFL, but the rule is very similar in the NF or NCAA when it comes to the covering official to judge if the ball at rest or nearly at rest would have gone to the EZ. Maybe the NFL has an interpretation that further makes when this is clear (mostly with video) how this is ultimately to be adjudicated. In my experience it would take a lot for a bad snap that is not moving very fast to consider a new impetus (or force) to change the result of the play.

Peace