Another force play
 

A’s ball going in at B’s 10 yard line. A player fumbles ball at 5 yard line and B player while attempting to recover fumble muffs it into and out of the end zone. What is the result of the play? Where is the ball at next?


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Just as in the previous situation, the covering official will determine what force put the ball across the goal line. If the force of the fumble would have taken the ball across the goal line regardless of B’s muff, it’s a touchback. If not, it’s a safety. 99/100 this will be a touchback.

99% plus.

I'd posit that it's considerably less than 99%. The chances of it going into B's EZ as a result of the muff go up exponentially as the spot of the fumble gets further from B's GL. ;)

Actually, distance has nothing to do with it. (NFHS 2-13-1-3) "is the result of energy exerted by a player which provides movement of the ball".

2-13-2 further advises, "RESPONSIBILITY for forcing the ball from the field of play across a goal line is attributed to the player who carries, snaps, passes, fumbles or kicks the ball UNLESS a new force is applied to either a kick, fumble or backwards pass THAT HAS BEEN GROUNDED.".

The 99% was derived from the one scenario provided where the ball is fumbled at the 5 yard line. Obviously as you get further from the GL, the chances of the fumble being the force that put the ball across the GL decrease.