test tomorrow

Dan_ref · #14 (**permalink**) Thu Jun 05, 2003, 10:21pm

Quote:

Originally posted by Nevadaref

Quote:

Originally posted by Dan_ref

The real problem with his stance is that as a theory it is incorrect. Theories of random probability do not apply to any single person, they only apply to very large groups of people. In theory it is very possible for a person to guess on every T/F question and get 100% correct. As the number of people taking the test increases the probability that the overall score is 50% approaches 100%. Gambling casinos show these theories to be true every day.

Dan,
First, I have a math degree.

Sigh...if you wanna play dueling degrees I'm afraid you're not gonna come out too well. So let's just stick to the point, OK?

Probability does not apply to a *single* random test taker. This is a fundemental concept. A single random test taker could get all, some, or none right in a 100 question T/F test and his results can not be predicted by the laws of statistics. Also, as Mark said, for N large we should expect SOME guessers to get 100% correct. But for N large the guessers tend to converge on a score of 50% correct with a probability approaching 1.

And since you live in Nevada howzabout you put $100 on 00 for me, OK? Keep doing it until I win!

[Edited by Dan_ref on Jun 5th, 2003 at 10:23 PM]