The Official Forum - 3 FTs proposal

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CMHCoachNRef (Post 568555)

First of all, I don't know that this is necessarily a problem looking for a solution, but it is always a worthwhile discussion to have.

Secondly, yes, you could foul every two seconds, but eventually you will probably foul the player that the offensive team would like to send to the line. If the fouls become hard fouls with excessive force or without attempt to play the ball, the official can still call an intentional foul (though, I will agree that officials do hesitate to make this call because of the massive difference in penalty compared to a regular foul -- which could be the difference between 1+1 and 2+THE BALL).

I do not think that calling a foul that happens to be the 13th or 14th for a team resulting in a 3-free-throw penalty would be significantly different than calling the 10th or 11th foul resulting in 2 vs. the 7th for a 1+1 -- a 67% FTer will have an expected value of 1.0 for the 1+1 vs. a 1.34 for 2 FTs. Yes, the 13th foul has an expected value of 2.0 in this situation, but not enough to prevent a call, in my opinion.

This difference is still only about half of the difference of a 1+1 (1.0 for a 67% shooter) vs. an intentional foul which would have 2 shots (1.34 for a 67% shooter) plus another 1.2 for the extra possession yielding 1.0 vs. 2.54. This math is one reason why referees are very reluctant to call all-but-the-most-obvious intentional fouls near the end of a game.

As for the answer being the shot clock, doesn't this still happen in college? Don't they have a shot clock, already?

I think the shot clock minimizes the late-game fouling to an acceptable level. You won't see an "on-purpose" foul with 2 minutes or even 1:30 left in a college game, but you will in an HS game.

And May I Use A Calculator ???

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbyron (Post 568307)

For example, suppose a team shoots 75% at the line. Then the expected value of 2 FT's would be 2 X .75 = 1.5. If their opponent is making 33% of the 3-point FG's, then the expected value of their tries would be 3 X .33 = 1 (approximately).

I didn't know that there was going to be math on the Forum today. Can I read this post tomorrow, please?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmokeEater (Post 568410)

How about just making it an intentional foul then they get no advantage to doing this at all.

Have a look at my previous post - this is what FIBA does :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by David M (Post 568464)

How about giving the fouled team the option of taking the foul shots or inbounding the ball.

And this was an option under FIBA rules until 1988 - when in the penalty situation (which was one-and-one) you had the option to shoot the free throws or take the ball a the halfway line. It just resulted in harder fouls being committed on players out of frustration.